Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

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At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk - everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests - we need a basic understanding of statistics. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

ISBN: 9780743254236

Published Date: March 1, 2003

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Language: English

Page Count: 310

Size: 9.01" l x 6.05" w x 0.87"